Written By: Christopher Busby
@cwbusbyhouston
Coming up on December 14th is the City of Houston municipal runoffs. On the ballot will be the Mayor’s race, several city council races, and several school board races. I will be focusing on the city council races which have gone to a runoff as well as the Mayor’s race. All races are technically non-partisan but I’m including their party affiliation for ease of the reader.
Mayor’s race: Democratic Mayor Sylvester Turner was narrowly forced into a runoff with wealthy Businessman and Trump clone Tony Buzbee. Buzbee spent election night giving an embarrassing election night speech where he was very obviously intoxicated. Buzbee is showing little evidence of consolidating the anti-Turner vote. Turner is likely to carry the runoff quite safely.
At-Large 1: The runoff will be between incumbent Republican Mike Knox and challenger Democrat Raj Salhotra. Salhotra is a young, Democratic, Asian-American challenger who has done a good job of consolidating Democratic support in the first round. However, the two other Democratic challengers from the first round have endorsed the incumbent, giving Knox a bit of life in his campaign when he was looking otherwise written off. Salhotra has both out organized and out fund-raised Knox and the runoff race leans in his favor though, the lead is likely, not prohibitive.
At-Large 2: Democratic incumbent David Robinson was carried into a runoff against Republican Willie Davis. Davis, who is African American hopes to put together a coalition of conservative Republicans and the city’s black population. Davis previously challenged Robinson 4 years ago and lost the runoff. The result is likely to be the same as last time as Robinson has not made any major missteps.
At-Large 3: Republican incumbent Michael Kubosh was narrowly carried into a runoff with Democratic challenger Janaeya Carmouche. Kubosh won 4 years ago with 60 percent of the vote and many were expecting a similar margin this time around. Carmouche has raised very little money but is starting to pick up more support in the runoff. This will be a close one which Kubosh is still favored, but Democrats can win if they consolidate behind Carmouche.
At-Large 4: This is an open seat race between Democrat Dr. Letitia Plummer and Republican Anthony Dolcefino. Dolcefino has a history of racist and alt-right affiliations and his family has a history of engaging in conspiracy theories around Mayor Turner and other local Democratic figures. Plummer should be favored in the runoff.
At-Large 5: This is an open seat race between Democrat Sallie Alcorn and Republican Eric Dick. Dick amounts to a perennial candidate who boasts that his only reason for running is to promote his law office. Alcorn is a long time city worker who has been involved in local politics for decades. She is very well funded and should easily win this race.
District A: This open seat went for a Republican vs. Republican runoff and will be between Amy Peck, chief of staff to the incumbent and George Zoes, community businessman. Peck got 45 percent in the first round and is favored to win. There is no substantive difference in ideology between the two.
District B: This open seat went for a Democrat vs. Democrat runoff and will be between Tarsha Jackson and Cynthia Bailey. While not ideologically divergent Bailey is noted for her served felony conviction which according to state law might disqualify her from serving in office. Jackson is favored but not prohibitively so.
District C: This open seat went for a Democrat vs. Democrat runoff and will be between attorney Abbie Kamin and activist Shelley Kennedy. Kamin finished a strong first place and should be favored for the runoff but many of the first-round losers have consolidated behind Kennedy giving her an outside chance of pulling off the victory.
District D: This open seat went for a Democrat vs. Democrat runoff and will be between NAACP member Carolyn Evans-Shabazz and rapper Brad “Scarface” Jordan. Shabazz should be favored but the idea of Council member Scarface has many local pundits highly amused.
District F: This open seat is between Democrat Tiffany Thomas and Republican Van Huynh. This district is overwhelmingly Democratic on the federal and state level but has a strong history of electing Vietnamese Republicans to the council. Thomas is likely to win but there is an outside chance that Huynh could pull off an upset.
District H: Incumbent Democrat Karla Cisneros has been forced into a runoff against Democrat Isabel Longoria. Cisneros has struggled with popularity over time for reasons I’ve never really understood why. There is no clear favorite to win the runoff and no serious ideological difference between the two candidates. I suspect that Longoria pulls off an upset.
District J: This open seat went for a Democrat vs. Democrat runoff between Edward Pollard and Sandra Rodriguez. This district was designed to be a Latino opportunity district but has never been represented by a Latino community member. Pollard, who is African American, is a self-described conservative Democrat while Rodriguez is more progressive. The two pulled an almost equal vote share in the first round so there is no clear favorite though I suspect Rodriguez pulls it off in the end.
Overview: With so many seats up there is a wide variety of outcomes. Currently, Republicans hold 7 of the city’s 16 city council seats including Districts A, E, F, G and At-Large 1,3, and 5. District F and At-Large 5 are likely to flip Democrat. At-Large 2, At-Large 4, and the Mayor’s race are the only defense local Democrats will be playing though they will probably hold all three. That only leaves At-Large 1 and 3 as the true battleground seats. Likely Democrats will pick up at least 2 but could pick up as many as 4 of the Republicans 7 seats putting them in a deep minority.